Weather Service backing off from crest predictions within fractions of a foot

  • Article by: BILL McAULIFFE , Star Tribune
  • Updated: February 19, 2012 - 9:01 PM

Weather Service may make flood predictions less precise.

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barryhoboFeb. 19, 12 9:49 PM

Here's a thought, If you dedide to live or build by a river,there's a chance of flooding. I know this may be SHOCKING to people in Fargo/Moorhead area. Kind of like living next to Volcano(Possible Fire Threat).

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jerryaldiniFeb. 20, 12 6:22 AM

All predictive models - in all disciplines and domains - are wrong, and usually by large margins. Humans have been deluded into believing that quantification of "capturable" variables and sophisticated algorithms are useful. Reality proves that they aren't.

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willmarresFeb. 20, 12 7:47 AM

jerryaldini...I have to disagree. These techniques are "useful" but they are not perfect predictors of what will happen.

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outdrs10Feb. 20, 1211:52 AM

If you flood after this winter, you should probably move.

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FrankLFeb. 20, 1212:09 PM

barryhobo, ever been up to the Red River basin? Might want to see for your self before shooting off your mouth. You can be miles away from the river and still get flooded.

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burkegenzFeb. 20, 12 3:39 PM

After last years' flood prediction fiasco, I say good. Because everyone one believes flood predictors are the final answer, they err to safety. Last year they used incomplete info and frightened everyone to spend millions we didn't have for a Flood that never was going to be. Don't be lulled this year. It has and always depends on rain. Know this the rain in Oct of 2010 produced the 2nd highest crest in Mankato history. Wasn't any frozen ground or snow. Just drain tile and storm sewers.

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rlhahnFeb. 20, 12 5:04 PM

I'm looking for a safety-floatation device for the driver of the boat ...

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jerryaldiniFeb. 20, 12 5:05 PM

Please tell the people of Japan, Cedar Rapids, or Joplin how "helpful" human predictions are.

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