Yes, it really is October

  • Article by: MARY LYNN SMITH , Star Tribune
  • Updated: October 5, 2011 - 6:46 AM

The warm weather has officials worried about fire danger.

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sjhuotOct. 4, 1111:25 PM

A little rain (even a lot) would be appreciated, but I love this weather, too!

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ammunraOct. 5, 1112:35 AM

Bring it on. It'll be snowing by halloween anyway, so I'm enjoying every minute of this.

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snowguy716Oct. 5, 11 2:01 AM

October is a transitional month, but October is often affected by the changes that go on in the tropical Pacific. We are currently in a weak La Niña state, but it is restrengthening. If you look at autumns with La Niña, October tends to be warmer than normal. Autumns with El Niño, October is colder than normal, like 2 years ago. From 1945-1976, La Niñas were much more common than El Niños, and October was typically dry and balmy across Minnesota. From 1977-2007, El Niños were more common than La Niñas, and October was one of two months to actually get colder (along with July) across Minnesota. This has to do with multi-decadal changes in the Pacific ocean. Octobers during La Niña are warmer because the subtropical high pressure centers become stronger than normal. The jet stream gets stronger than normal and flattens out. This delivers mild Pacific origin air into the U.S. which warms up when it sinks east of the mountains. The mountains often will be cold with early season snow (as is coming tonight to the Sierra Nevada Range). However, this "bull whip" jet stream keeps the cold bottled up in the Arctic. As that cold air builds, it will usually break the flat, zonal pattern rather spectacularly in November or early December and deliver a heck of a storm pattern that has led to the most damaging fall storms in Minnesota. The Witch of November is likely to visit us this year again. Already the forecast models are showing a pattern shift with large storm systems winding up across the central U.S. bringing us copious rain and possibly early season snows too.

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cricketedOct. 5, 11 6:36 AM

Not saying this has anything to do with global warming but I don't see any of the deniers here lately.

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barrelstoveOct. 5, 11 7:14 AM

get out of the cities ya 612er's. enjoy your state!!

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fish60Oct. 5, 11 8:43 AM

I'm expecting to get slammed by a sudden colder than normal cold front when this heat wave stops. Just like the last 3 Decembers when we've gotten -20's.

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